A recent study reveals the impact of global warming on plant species in Brazil’s Cerrado savanna, indicating winners and losers in the face of shifting climates. Conducted by researchers from the University of Exeter, University of Campinas, Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, and Trinity College Dublin, the study focuses on the repercussions of warming temperatures on over 7,000 plant species in the Cerrado.
According to Mateus Silva of the University of Exeter, every plant species has a geographical range dictated by suitable environmental conditions. As temperatures rise, plant ranges are shifting, with lowland species migrating uphill for cooler climates. However, mountainous plants face the challenge of having nowhere else to relocate.
The Cerrado, covering a mere 0.4% of the Earth’s land surface, harbors approximately 3.5% of all flowering plants, akin to the biodiversity of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest. Using Species Distribution Models and fine-scale climate data, the research team projected the fate of plant species by 2040.
Their findings suggest that by 2040, around 150 plant species could undergo a critical reduction in range, losing more than 70% of their habitat. Moreover, nearly half of Cerrado plant species are expected to experience a net range loss due to climate change, leading to a decline in species numbers across 68-73% of the Cerrado landscapes.
The researchers emphasize that their projections only consider climate change, overlooking other significant threats such as habitat destruction. Nearly half of the Cerrado savanna has already been cleared for agriculture or grazing, exacerbating the challenges for species migration and survival.
While the study underscores the need for immediate conservation efforts, it highlights the importance of preserving highland areas within the Cerrado, which provide unique habitats necessitating distinct conservation strategies.
Funded by WWF, University of Exeter alumni, Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), and Brazilian research funding agencies FAPESP and CNPq, the study’s findings were published in the journal Diversity and Distributions under the title “Elevation modulates the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian Cerrado flora.”