New research from UCL reveals that while current air pollution regulations will prevent thousands of premature adult deaths in the UK, even the most effective technically feasible measures won’t adequately protect the country’s sensitive ecosystems. The study, published in GeoHealth, estimates that existing regulations will avoid 6,751 premature adult deaths in the UK by 2030, increasing to 13,269 if all possible measures are implemented immediately.
The study highlights the challenge posed by the UK’s agriculture sector, as existing regulations do not cover most of its emissions, which are predicted to rise in the coming years. Additionally, the research suggests that the harmful effects of air pollution on sensitive ecosystems cannot be significantly reduced even with the implementation of all available measures.
Lead author Dr. Eloise Marais from UCL Geography emphasizes the need for more ambitious adoption of readily available measures, especially for livestock farming and fertilizer use, and a shift from suggestions to regulations for the farming industry.
The research estimates that 48,625 adults die prematurely each year in the UK due to particulate matter pollution, with 79% of the UK currently exceeding the World Health Organization’s annual mean guideline for safe fine particulate matter levels.
Existing regulations target emissions from sources like shipping, aviation, transportation, power plants, and industry. The extent of the UK exceeding the WHO guideline is expected to decline from 79% to 58% by 2030 with current regulations, dropping to as low as 36% if all technically feasible measures are implemented.
However, ammonia emissions, a significant contributor to particulate matter pollution, primarily originate from agriculture, which remains largely unregulated. Ammonia emissions would slightly increase under current regulations and only moderately decrease with readily available measures.
Furthermore, air pollution’s impact on sensitive ecosystems in the majority of UK national parks and protected areas is challenging to mitigate. Ammonia emissions from agriculture have detrimental effects, increasing nitrogen levels in ecosystems that rely on low nitrogen levels. Sensitive habitats, covering almost all non-urban and non-intensive farming land in the UK, are already exposed to excess atmospheric nitrogen pollution.
The research predicts that due to agricultural intensification, ammonia emissions could increase slightly by about 2% by 2030. Even with all feasible measures in place, ammonia emissions would only decrease by a modest 19%, a fraction of the estimated 80% reduction needed to significantly reduce harm to sensitive habitats.
Dr. Ed Rowe, a co-author of the study from the UK Center for Ecology and Hydrology, highlights the ongoing threats facing the nation’s sensitive ecosystems, including heaths, montane landscapes, bogs, and Scots pine woodlands, even under the most optimistic projections.
The research combines emission projections, high-resolution data sets, exposure-risk relationships, and atmospheric chemistry model simulations to generate its results.